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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2017-07-17 13:43:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 171143 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Mon Jul 17 2017 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Fernanda, located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Showers and thunderstorms have increased in organization over the last day in association with a well-defined area of low pressure located about 350 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Although upper-level winds are not conducive, any further development of the system will lead to the formation of a tropical depression at any time. The low is expected to move toward the west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Showers and thunderstorms have also increased during the past day or so near an area of low pressure centered about 900 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja peninsula. Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, this system has the potential to become a tropical depression during the next day or so before upper-level winds become unfavorable for development. The low is expected to move slowly to the west or west-northwest during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. Another area of low pressure is expected to form in the eastern Pacific Ocean south of Mexico late this week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some development of the system by the weekend while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Landsea

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