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Hurricane AMANDA Forecast Discussion Number 13
2014-05-25 22:42:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN MAY 25 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 252042 TCDEP1 HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 200 PM PDT SUN MAY 25 2014 Conventional and microwave satellite imagery indicate that Amanda likely peaked in intensity around 1200 UTC this morning and has started weakening since then. The CDO feature has decreased in size and become more ragged looking during the past few hours, and the small eye is becoming less distinct and cloud-filled in visible imagery. A 1459 UTC SSMI/S microwave image revealed that Amanda possessed a pinhole eye, which usually means that an eyewall replacement cycle is not far behind. The initial intensity has been decreased to 130 kt based on a blend of final T-numbers from TAFB and SAB ranging from T5.5/102 kt to T6.5/127 kt. Although UW-CIMSS ADT estimates remain at T6.9/137 kt, the raw values have dropped to T6.1/117 kt, which further supports lowering the initial intensity. Amanda is now moving northward to north-northwestward or 350/04 kt. The hurricane is forecast to maintain this general motion for the next 3 days or so as the cyclone remains embedded in southerly steering flow between a broad deep-layer trough to its west and a weak mid-level ridge to its east. After that time, Amanda is forecast to weaken fairly significantly and become a shallow cyclone that could briefly stall before turning westward or southwestward when it comes under the influence of a large low-level subtropical ridge to its north. The model guidance suite has shifted westward this cycle, including the consensus model TVCE. However, the latter model is biased by a more westerly track of the UKMET model that initialized a very weak cyclone instead of a more robust category 4 hurricane. Therefore, the official track forecast remains similar to the previous track and lies to right of TVCE, near the eastern portion of the guidance envelope and closer to the ECMWF model. Cold upwelling and occasional intrusions of dry mid-level air should slowly erode the inner-core convection over the next 24 hours or so. An eyewall replacement cycle is also possible, which would act to hasten the weakening process. By day 2 and beyond, the combination of cooler water, drier air, and increasing southerly vertical wind shear should induce more rapid weakening, and Amanda is forecast to degenerate into a non-convective remnant low by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the intensity consensus model IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 12.3N 111.3W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 12.8N 111.4W 115 KT 135 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 13.6N 111.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 14.6N 111.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 15.6N 111.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 17.1N 111.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 18.0N 110.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 30/1800Z 18.4N 110.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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