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Hurricane Bud Forecast Discussion Number 10
2018-06-12 04:42:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 120242 TCDEP3 Hurricane Bud Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 900 PM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018 Bud has been sending mixed signals this evening regarding its intensity. On one hand, the eye has been warming and become more distinct in infrared satellite imagery. On the other hand, the central dense overcast has been shrinking, and temperatures of the convective cloud tops have been warming as well. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are T5.5/102 kt while the objective ADT peaked at 6.5/127 kt. The initial intensity is raised to 110 kt as a compromise of these values. Bud appears to be going through a trochoidal oscillation, but the longer-term motion estimate is northwestward, or 315/6 kt. The hurricane is moving between a large mid-level high centered near the U.S./Mexico border and Post-Tropical Cyclone Aletta, but with the ridge directly to its north, Bud's forward speed is expected to slow down to 4-5 kt for the next 48 hours. After that time, a developing mid- to upper-level trough off the California coast will cause Bud to turn northward and accelerate across the Baja California Peninsula. The track models are tightly clustered, with the only subtle outlier being the ECMWF, which is a little slower and to the west of the other models. The NHC forecast is closest to the TVCX multi-model consensus and not too different from the previous forecast. Since vertical shear is forecast to remain low for the next 3 days or so and there is plenty of atmospheric moisture, the biggest limiting factor on intensification appears to be low oceanic heat content. Bud has reached an area where waters of 26C or warmer only extend 20 meters or less below the ocean surface. Upwelling of colder water is likely due to the hurricane's expected slow motion, and the colder water will likely induce a rather quick weakening trend. The HCCA and Florida State Superensemble show the most dramatic drop-off in winds, while the SHIPS model maintains Bud's intensity for another 24 hours or so before showing much weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is between these two scenarios, with Bud expected to fall below hurricane intensity near the 48-hour mark (late Wednesday). Continued weakening is expected as Bud approaches and moves across the southern Baja California Peninsula, and the cyclone is likely to be a remnant low over the Mexican state of Sonora by day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 17.6N 107.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 18.1N 107.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 18.8N 108.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 19.4N 108.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 20.2N 109.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 22.4N 110.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 25.5N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 30.0N 110.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Berg
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