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Hurricane Bud Forecast Discussion Number 11
2018-06-12 10:38:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 120838 TCDEP3 Hurricane Bud Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 300 AM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018 Bud has been maintaining a well-defined eye for the past several hours but recent satellite images suggest some loss of definition. The current intensity is set to 115 kt in agreement with a Dvorak current intensity estimate from TAFB. Even though Bud is currently a powerful hurricane, it is going to pass over ocean waters of progressively decreasing heat content and lower SSTs. Therefore, weakening is likely. Gradual weakening should commence later today, but by Wednesday the rate of weakening should increase as the ocean becomes significantly less conducive. The official intensity forecast is close to the multi-model consensus guidance IVCN, however the corrected/smart consensus models HCCA and the Florida State University Superensemble show a more rapid decline in intensity than shown here. Bud is likely to degenerate into a remnant low by the time it reaches mainland Mexico. Bud's movement has continued to exhibit a trochoidal oscillation, which is typical of major hurricanes. Smoothing through these trochoidal wobbles gives an estimated motion that is the same as in the previous advisory, or 315/6 kt. The track forecast reasoning is essentially unchanged. Bud is moving between a large mid-level anticyclone centered near the United States/Mexico border and the circulation of Post-Tropical Cyclone Aletta. Over the next day or so, increased ridging to the north of Bud should result in a slowing of the forward motion of the tropical cyclone. Later, a trough off the southern California and northern Baja California Peninsula coasts should cause Bud to turn to the north with some increase in forward speed. The official track forecast is close to the previous one, and in good agreement with the latest multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 18.1N 108.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 18.5N 108.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 19.2N 108.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 19.9N 109.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 20.9N 109.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 23.4N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 26.7N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 31.0N 111.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch
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