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Hurricane Bud Forecast Discussion Number 5
2018-06-10 22:42:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 102041 TCDEP3 Hurricane Bud Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018 The cloud pattern of Bud has continued to become better organized, and a ragged eye has become apparent intermittently on visible images. T-numbers from TAFB and CIMSS have reached 4.0 on the Dvorak scale, so Bud has been upgraded to hurricane status with 65- kt winds in this advisory. The environment continues to be quite favorable for strengthening, while the rapid intensification indexes continue to be high. On this basis, the NHC forecast, which is very close to both the corrected consensus HCCA and FSSE models calls for additional strengthening for the next 24 hours or so. Beyond 48 hours, a steady state or weakening should begin as the cyclone approaches the cold waters near the Baja California peninsula. The best estimate of the initial motion continues to be toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 8 kt. Bud is being steered by the flow around the periphery of a high pressure system over the western United States. In about 3 days, Bud is expected to reach the western edge of the high, and the cyclone should then begin to turn toward the north-northwest and then northward. There is high confidence in the track forecast for the next 3 days since guidance continues to be in quite good agreement. After that time, the guidance becomes less reliable, but in general, all models bring a weakening tropical cyclone over or near Baja California peninsula. Although the core of Bud is expected to pass well off the southwestern coast of Mexico, the hurricane is accompanied by rainbands mainly to the east of the center. These bands have the possibility of producing tropical-storm-force winds along a portion of the coast. Consequently, the Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for a small portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 15.3N 104.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 16.4N 105.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 17.2N 106.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 18.0N 107.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 18.5N 107.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 19.7N 108.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 14/1800Z 21.5N 109.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 15/1800Z 24.0N 110.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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