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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 57
2019-09-07 16:52:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 071452 TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 57 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 Satellite imagery this morning indicates that Dorian is starting extratropical transition, with cold air clouds entraining into the southwestern side of the cyclone and a developing warm front to the north and east. However, the cyclone still has persistent convection just north and northeast of the center, so it remains a hurricane on this advisory. NOAA buoy 44011 reported a minimum pressure of 955.3 mb as the center passed just to the west, so the initial central pressure is lowered to 953 mb. The initial intensity remains 75 kt based partly on recently-received WindSat data showing hurricane-force winds southwest of the center. Dorian continues to move rapidly northeastward with an initial motion of 040/25 kt. The current motion should bring the center of Dorian over central and eastern Nova Scotia in about 12 h and near or over Prince Edward Island shortly thereafter. Subsequently, Dorian is forecast to move near or through northern Newfoundland and southeastern Labrador before turning east-northeastward over the far north Atlantic. There are no significant changes to the previous forecast, and the new forecast is again close to the various consensus aids. Dorian is expected to complete extratropical transition during the next 24 h as it merges with a strong mid- to upper-level trough and associated surface frontal zone. The global models agree on a gradual decay of the winds after transition is complete. However, the cyclone will likely still be producing hurricane-force winds as it moves through portions of eastern Canada. The global models also agree that the post-tropical cyclone should become absorbed by another extratropical low in 2-3 days. The NHC intensity forecast again leans towards the GFS and ECMWF models, which typically handle large extratropical lows better that than the intensity models that are made for tropical cyclones. Key Messages: 1. Regardless of whether it is a hurricane or a post-tropical cyclone, Dorian is expected to have a significant impact in portions of eastern Canada beginning during the next several hours. Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely in portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia. Hurricane-force winds are also likely in Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland later today and tonight. Refer to information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information on these hazards. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 42.0N 66.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 45.1N 63.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER NOVA SCOTIA 24H 08/1200Z 48.9N 59.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 09/0000Z 51.7N 54.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 09/1200Z 54.2N 47.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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