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Hurricane Helene Public Advisory Number 13
2024-09-26 16:54:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 261454 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 ...HELENE STRENGTHENING AND EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND THIS EVENING AS A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.5N 85.5W ABOUT 255 MI...405 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mexico Beach eastward and southward to Flamingo * Tampa Bay * Charlotte Harbor A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Anclote River to Mexico Beach A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas * Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay * West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line * Flamingo northward to Little River Inlet * Lake Okeechobee * Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 85.5 West. Helene is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A significant increase in forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours. On the forecast track, Helene will make landfall in the Florida Big Bend region this evening. After landfall, Helene is expected to turn northwestward and slow down over the Tennessee Valley on Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast this evening. Weakening is expected after landfall, but Helene's fast forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds, especially in gusts, to penetrate well inland across the southeastern United States, including over the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians. Helene is a very large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km). The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Carrabelle, FL to Suwannee River, FL...15-20 ft Apalachicola, FL to Carrabelle, FL...10-15 ft Suwannee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...8-12 ft Indian Pass, FL to Apalachicola, FL...6-10 ft Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft Tampa Bay...5-8 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft East of Mexico Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the U.S. hurricane warning area late today. Tropical storm conditions have already begun in the Florida Keys and portions of south Florida, and these conditions are expected to spread northward across the tropical storm warning areas in the southeastern U.S. through early Friday. Strong, damaging winds, especially in gusts, will likely penetrate as far inland as the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the warning area in western Cuba during the next couple of hours. RAINFALL: Hurricane Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding. Over portions of the Southeastern U.S. into the Southern Appalachians, Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated totals around 20 inches. This rainfall will likely result in catastrophic and potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with significant river flooding. Numerous significant landslides are expected in steep terrain across the southern Appalachians. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: The risk for several tornadoes will gradually increase today through tonight. The greatest threat is expected from parts of northern Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect much of Florida and the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas during the next couple of days. Swells will also continue across portions of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Helene Forecast Advisory Number 13
2024-09-26 16:53:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 26 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 261453 TCMAT4 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 1500 UTC THU SEP 26 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 85.5W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......250NE 300SE 100SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 240SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 85.5W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 85.9W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 28.8N 84.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 50SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...270NE 270SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 33.9N 84.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 330SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 36.4N 86.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 36.5N 87.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 36.3N 87.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 36.2N 87.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 85.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 26/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Helene Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2024-09-26 16:53:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2024 14:53:58 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics