je.st
news
Hurricane Isaac Forecast Discussion Number 6
2024-09-27 10:52:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2024 256 WTNT45 KNHC 270852 TCDAT5 Hurricane Isaac Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024 500 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2024 Isaac has continued to become better organized since the prior advisory. The earlier warm spot noted on IR satellite imagery has persisted and warmed further, with sufficently cold -55 to -60 C convective cloud tops encircling the feature. A helpful AMSR2 pass that became available after the prior advisory also showed an eye feature on both the 89-GHz and 37-GHz channels, the latter showing a cyan ring. These features suggest that Isaac has become a hurricane, and the initial intensity has been raised to 65 kt for this advisory. Isaac still is moving generally eastward this morning, estimated at 090/10 kt. This motion with a gradual turn to the east-northeast should occur over the next couple of days as the hurricane remains steered mostly by deep-layer flow along the northern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered to the southeast of Isaac. Once again, how quick this forward motion ends up being will be critical for its ultimate track down the road, with a track bifurcation continuing between the GFS and ECMWF solutions occuring beyond 60 h as to how much the upstream trough located to its east is able to interact and pick up the cyclone. Despite the spread in the guidance, the consensus aids are not that much altered from the prior cycle, and the NHC track forecast is quite similar to the prior advisory. Additional intensification is expected while the vertical wind shear remains only low to moderate and Isaac continues to be over sufficently warm sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) with instability being aided by cold upper-level temperatures. After 36 h, SSTs drop to 24 C and lower as shear increases markedly, which should induce a gradual weakening trend. Both the GFS and ECMWF suggest the cyclone should lose its deep convection sometime in the 72-96 h period, marking its transition to post-tropical in that time frame. The NHC intensity forecast is on the high side of the guidance, but is generally in line with the latest GFS-based SHIPS and LGEM guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 37.0N 48.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 37.5N 45.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 38.8N 42.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 40.4N 39.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 41.8N 37.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 29/1800Z 43.1N 35.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 44.0N 34.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 01/0600Z 46.9N 30.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 02/0600Z 50.4N 26.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Papin
Category:Transportation and Logistics
LATEST NEWS
Summary for Hurricane Isaac (AT5/AL102024)
2024-09-27 10:50:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ISAAC BECOMES A HURRICANE... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 27 the center of Isaac was located near 37.0, -48.5 with movement E at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Isaac Public Advisory Number 6
2024-09-27 10:50:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 270850 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Isaac Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024 500 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2024 ...ISAAC BECOMES A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.0N 48.5W ABOUT 1175 MI...1895 KM W OF THE AZORES ABOUT 980 MI...1575 KM ENE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaac was located near latitude 37.0 North, longitude 48.5 West. Isaac is moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion with a gradual turn to the east-northeast is expected over the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next day or so followed by gradual weakening by the end of this weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Isaac and a large wind fetch from a deep-layer trough are affecting portions of the coast of Bermuda and could spread into the Azores by this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
Category: Transportation and Logistics