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Hurricane John Forecast Discussion Number 16
2024-09-26 22:45:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 263 WTPZ45 KNHC 262039 TCDEP5 Hurricane John Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 PM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 John has slowed its forward motion this afternoon. A scatterometer pass late this morning confirmed that the motion had slowed and the center is lingering offshore. The inner core of convection has become less pronounced and the circulation may be feeling the orographic effects of the mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico. However, a strong convective curved band extends in the southwest semi-circle. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates have remained fairly steady this afternoon between 65 to 75 kt. Given the current satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity for this advisory remains at 65 kt. The hurricane has not been moving much since the previous advisory and the estimated motion is 325/ 2 kt. This slow motion is forecast to continue as John approaches the coastline, moving along the coast or just inland later tonight or early tomorrow. Some of the global model fields keep the system offshore near the coast a little longer. In the long term, a turn back to the west-northwest is anticipated as the system weakens and is steered by a high pressure ridge located over northern Mexico. The overall environment remains favorable for John to strengthen with very warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear. However, John's proximity to the coastline may continue to disrupt the circulation and not allow for much additional strengthening. The latest NHC intensity forecast shows some slight strengthening over the next 12 h. Models are in fairly good agreement that steady weakening will begin Friday, with the system becoming a depression on Friday night. John has a very large rain shield, and flooding impacts will extend well outside where the system makes landfall. It cannot be emphasized enough that catastrophic life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected to continue through the end of the week for portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacan. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Hurricane John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Friday. The additional rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received very heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and catastrophic life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacán. 2. John is forecast to continue strengthening up until landfall, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect along the coastline of southwestern Mexico, where hurricane conditions are imminent. Tropical Storm Warnings are also in effect for portions of the area, where tropical storm conditions are ongoing or imminent. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 17.6N 102.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 18.0N 103.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 18.6N 103.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 28/0600Z 19.2N 104.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 28/1800Z 19.8N 106.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/0600Z 20.6N 107.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane John Graphics
2024-09-26 22:40:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2024 20:40:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2024 20:40:12 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Hurricane John (EP5/EP102024)
2024-09-26 22:39:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JOHN MOVING SLOWLY... ...CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM CST Thu Sep 26 the center of John was located near 17.6, -102.8 with movement NW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics