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Hurricane John Public Advisory Number 15
2024-09-26 16:39:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 261439 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane John Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 900 AM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 ...HURRICANE JOHN IS PRODUCING CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 102.7W ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM W OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch from west of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to east of Tecpan de Galeana * West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 18 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 102.7 West. John is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this motion should continue through the remainder of today. On the forecast track, the center of John is forecast to approach and move along the coast of southwestern Mexico or just inland on later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected until the center moves along the coast or inland later today, which should cause John to quickly weaken to a depression Friday Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through Friday, Hurricane John is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches across portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacán. Additional rainfall o 2 to 4 inches with locally up to 6 inches expected across the Mexican States of Colima and western Oaxaca. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast within the hurricane warning area by tonight or early Friday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength later within a few hours. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. Tropical storm conditions are currently occurring over portions of the coast within the tropical storm warning area, and should continue through today. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue to affect the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico through the week, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane John Forecast Advisory Number 15
2024-09-26 16:38:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 26 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 261438 TCMEP5 HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 1500 UTC THU SEP 26 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 102.7W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 120SE 60SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 360SE 300SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 102.7W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 102.6W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.0N 102.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 120SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.6N 103.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 10NE 80SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.2N 104.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.8N 105.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.5N 107.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 102.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 26/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Discussion Number 3
2024-09-26 16:37:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 261437 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2024 Isaac's structure has remained mostly steady state during the past 6 hours. Cloud tops associated with the tropical storm are still not particularly cold, but as noted in previous discussions, this is not unexpected for its synoptic environment. A blend of subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB plus objective estimates from UW-CIMSS still supports an intensity of 45 kt for this advisory. For the next 48-60 h, the track forecast appears to be mostly straightforward. All reliable guidance indicates that Isaac will continue moving eastward to east-northeastward with a mid-latitude trough during that period. However, there is a significant bifurcation in the dynamical models after that. A majority of the guidance, including most of the ECMWF ensemble, indicate that Isaac will turn back eastward, continuing with the mid-latitude flow associated with another deep-layer trough. However, a few members of the global ensembles, plus the deterministic GFS, indicate Isaac could move slightly slower, which could cause the tropical storm to interact with a different trough, currently located over eastern Canada. This may cause the tropical cyclone to move northward after 60 h, on a very different track. The NHC forecast treats the GFS as an outlier, and is instead near the consensus of the remaining guidance. It is therefore very similar to the previous forecast. However, confidence in this forecast is particularly low, and we can't rule out needing to make an unusually large change to later forecasts. Isaac appears to be in an environment that should be generally conducive for some strengthening, especially during the next day or two. After that, unusually cold upper-tropospheric temperatures could help sustain the tropical cyclone for a while, even as it moves over colder SSTs in the 24-25 deg C. By the end of the forecast period, much colder SSTs and a dramatic increase in shear should cause Isaac to become post-tropical. No changes of note were made to the NHC forecast, which still shows Isaac reaching hurricane strength during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 37.3N 51.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 37.4N 49.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 37.9N 46.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 38.7N 43.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 39.9N 39.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 29/0000Z 41.2N 36.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 42.3N 33.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 43.5N 25.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 43.5N 18.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
Category: Transportation and Logistics