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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 64

2018-10-12 11:11:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Oct 12 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 120911 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 64 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 AM AST Fri Oct 12 2018 Leslie has changed little in organization since the last advisory. The eye is currently not apparent in conventional satellite imagery, although recent microwave overpasses indicate at least a partial eyewall is present under the overcast. Satellite intensity estimates have changed little, so the initial intensity is held at 80 kt. The initial motion is now 065/24. The guidance is in good agreement that this general motion should continue for 24 h or so. After that, there is a major model divergence. The GFS, ECMWF, and the various consensus models now show a continued east-northeast motion until landfall in Portugal or Spain. On the other hand, the UKMET, UK ensemble mean, and Canadian models show a turn toward the south and then back to the west. Since the previous forecast showed a southward and westward turn, the new forecast track will also follow this scenario. However, it is shifted well to the east of the previous track due to the forecasts of the other models. Needless to say, the latter portion of the track forecast is low confidence. Leslie should gradually weaken as it approaches Madeira Island during the next 24-36 h. After that, the intensity forecast is dependent on what track the cyclone takes. If it follows the GFS/ECMWF scenario, the system would likely make landfall on the Iberian peninsula and quickly dissipate. If it follows the UKMET scenario, a combination of shear, cool water, and dry air entrainment should cause weakening. Since the track forecast is closer to the UKMET scenario, the intensity forecast follows the previous forecast in having Leslie decay to a post-tropical low by 72 h. However, this is also a low confidence forecast due to the uncertainties in the track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 31.9N 31.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 33.1N 26.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 34.2N 20.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 34.6N 15.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 34.0N 13.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 32.0N 12.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/0600Z 30.0N 13.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 17/0600Z 28.0N 18.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm Nadine Graphics

2018-10-12 11:00:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 12 Oct 2018 09:00:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 12 Oct 2018 09:34:22 GMT

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Hurricane Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 64

2018-10-12 10:56:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 000 FONT13 KNHC 120856 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 64 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0900 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONTA DELGADA 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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