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Hurricane MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 12
2014-08-24 22:32:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 242031 TCDEP3 HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014 Marie has developed a fairly steady-state structure, with a solid area of white (in the Dvorak satellite enhancement) surrounding a 10 n mi wide eye. Dvorak final-T numbers have risen to T7.0/140 kt from TAFB, SAB, and the objective ADT, and that value is set as the initial intensity. This makes Marie the first category 5 hurricane in the eastern North Pacific basin since Hurricane Celia in 2010. Unless Marie can develop even colder cloud tops in the convection surrounding the eye, continued strengthening is probably not likely. The SHIPS model shows additional intensification for the next 12-18 hours, but much of the contribution comes from persistence and not the environment itself. Plus, a 1709 UTC AMSU pass indicates that a secondary eyewall is already forming, making it likely that an eyewall replacement will occur during the next day or so. Therefore, fluctuations in intensity are expected in the short term, but the NHC intensity forecast keeps Marie as a major hurricane through 48 hours. After that time, the hurricane will quickly move over colder water, and it is likely to weaken to a tropical storm between day 3 and 4, and then become post-tropical by day 5. This scenario is not really different from the previous forecast, except maybe showing a little faster weakening after 48 hours in line with the most recent SHIPS and LGEM guidance. Trochoidal motions appear to be influencing Marie's recent short term movement, but the hurricane's longer-term 12-hour motion is 270/12 kt. The track guidance remains tightly clustered and insists that Marie should resume a west-northwestward or even northwestward motion in the next 12-24 hours. That general trajectory should continue through day 4, with Marie turning north-northwestward by day 5 when it reaches the western edge of the subtropical ridge. As in the previous forecast, no significant changes to the NHC track forecast were required on this advisory. Although Marie is expected to remain well off the coast of Mexico, very large swells will affect southwestern Mexico through tomorrow and much of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. Southerly swells will also reach the coast of southern California by Tuesday, producing life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 16.0N 112.2W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 16.6N 113.7W 140 KT 160 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 17.9N 115.4W 135 KT 155 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 19.5N 117.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 20.7N 119.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 23.0N 124.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 26.0N 129.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 29.5N 131.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Berg
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