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Hurricane MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 6
2014-08-23 10:38:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 230838 TCDEP3 HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014 Marie continues to quickly strengthen. Enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery and a few microwave passes show significant improvement of the inner core and outer rain band features. Embedded center cloud tops continue to cool and are now around -82 degrees C. The initial intensity is raised to 65 kt and is based on a compromise of Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and an objective ADT current intensity of 72 kt. The water is warm and the shear is low, and this ripe environment is expected to remain conducive for further significant strengthening. In fact, the SHIPS continues to show Marie intensifying to a Category 4 hurricane in 48 hours and the SHIPS RI Index indicates that the chance of a 35 kt increase in winds during the next 24 hours is 4 times the sample mean. The intensity forecast follows the SHIPS through day 3, then sides with the IVCN consensus model as the cyclone traverses sub-26C sea surface temperatures. Marie continues toward the west-northwest and the initial motion is estimated to be 285/11, similar to the climatological mean for the eastern Pacific basin. Marie is forecast to move along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge that extends westward over the extreme eastern Pacific from the southwestern United States and northern Mexico. The official NHC forecast is close to the previous package and is hedged toward the TVCE multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 14.0N 105.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 14.6N 107.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 15.3N 109.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 15.9N 111.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 16.6N 113.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 18.9N 116.6W 115 KT 135 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 21.3N 120.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 24.1N 125.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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