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Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 46
2017-09-27 16:49:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 271449 TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 46 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2017 Deep convection and banding has increased over the eastern and northeastern portion of the large circulation of Maria since yesterday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has measured peak flight-level winds of 74 kt and several believable SFMR winds around 65 kt in the convection well northeast of the center this morning. Based on these data, the initial wind speed is adjusted to 65 kt, which makes Maria a hurricane once again. Although the shear is forecast to decrease over Maria during the next couple of days, cool sea surface temperatures are likely to result in a slow decrease in intensity. The new NHC intensity forecast is a little above the previous advisory due to the slightly higher initial intensity. Maria is expected to become an extratropical low over the north Atlantic by 96 h and be absorbed by a larger extratropical low over the northeastern Atlantic by day 5. Maria is finally making its much anticipated north-northeast turn, with an estimated motion of 015/5. The hurricane is expected to turn east-northeastward on Thursday as it enters the mid-latitude westerly flow. A trough moving into eastern North America late this week should cause Maria to accelerate east-northeastward over the north Atlantic on Friday and Saturday. The spread in the guidance is still largely along track after 36 hours, and the NHC forecast remains near the model consensus to account for these differences. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria is forecast to slowly move away from the North Carolina coast later today. However, tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along portions of the North Carolina coast through this afternoon. 2. Storm surge flooding is occurring, especially along the sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks, and a storm surge warning and watch are in effect for portions of eastern North Carolina. 3. Swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 35.6N 72.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 36.1N 72.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 36.5N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 36.7N 67.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 37.7N 62.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 42.5N 47.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 50.0N 26.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 02/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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