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Hurricane Max Forecast Discussion Number 6
2017-09-14 16:35:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 141435 TCDEP1 Hurricane Max Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162017 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017 Max continues to have a well-defined eye in radar imagery from Acapulco, Mexico, even though the eye that was observed in earlier infrared satellite imagery has become obscured. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are up to T4.0/65 kt, but given the hurricane's structure as seen in radar data, the initial intensity is set slightly higher at 70 kt. Radar animations indicate that Max's eye has been moving just north of due east, and the initial motion is estimated to be 085/5 kt. Max is located to the north of a mid-level ridge extending southwest of Guatemala, and the flow around this ridge should force the hurricane to move eastward or east-northeastward across the coast of Guerrero or Oaxaca by this evening or tonight. After landfall, Max should move farther inland over southern Mexico. With sea surface temperatures near 30 degrees Celsius and relatively low shear, the environment appears conducive for further strengthening before Max reaches the coast. The new NHC forecast closely follows the SHIPS and LGEM statistical-dynamical guidance and shows a little more intensification during the next 12 hours than was indicated in the previous advisory. Max will weaken quickly after landfall, and is expected to dissipate over the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico by 36 hours. Heavy rainfall continues to be the primary threat from Max. Rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated amounts of 20 inches, are expected over the Mexican states of Guerrero and Oaxaca, and life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 16.3N 99.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 16.5N 99.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 16.9N 98.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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