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Hurricane Max Forecast Discussion Number 7
2017-09-14 22:40:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 142040 TCDEP1 Hurricane Max Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162017 400 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017 Max's structure continued to improve since the last advisory, with a well-defined eye showing up in both visible and infrared satellite images for a couple of hours. At 1800 UTC, satellite classifications ranged from 65 to 90 kt, so guidance was initialized at 75 kt. However, Max's center appears to be moving onshore to the east of Acapulco, and the eye that was observed in satellite imagery has disappeared. The advisory intensity is therefore set a little lower at 70 kt. The initial motion is 080/7 kt, with Max being steered eastward to the north of a mid-level ridge extending southwestward from Central America. An eastward or east-northwestward motion is expected to continue, and Max will be moving farther inland over southern Mexico. There were only a few trackers available from the track guidance, and the NHC forecast is primarily an extrapolation of the current motion for the next 12 hours. Now that Max is moving onshore and will be encountering the mountains of southern Mexico, rapid weakening is likely. In fact, the center of the small cyclone will probably not fare well in the high terrain, and Max is forecast to dissipate by 24 hours, if not sooner. Heavy rainfall continues to be the primary threat from Max. Rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated amounts of 20 inches, are expected over the Mexican states of Guerrero and Oaxaca, and life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 16.6N 99.1W 70 KT 80 MPH...ON THE COAST 12H 15/0600Z 16.9N 98.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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