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Hurricane NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 31
2016-10-11 22:38:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST TUE OCT 11 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 112037 TCDAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 PM AST TUE OCT 11 2016 Nicole has continued to strengthen today with the cloud pattern becoming much better organized since this morning. A 20 to 25 n mi wide eye has developed and become better defined within a rather symmetric central dense overcast. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that investigated Nicole this afternoon has measured peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 79 kt, SFMR winds of around 65 kt, and a minimum pressure of 980 mb. Based on these data, and the continued increase in organization the initial wind speed has been increased to 70 kt. Environmental conditions consisting of low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures along the track of Nicole should allow for additional intensification during the next day or so. In fact, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index shows nearly a 30 percent chance of a 30 kt increase in wind speed during the next 24 hours. The NHC intensity forecast has been increased from the previous advisory and calls for Nicole to be near major hurricane strength when it passes near Bermuda in 36 to 48 hours. The NHC forecast calls for a faster increase in strength during the next 24 hours, but is close to the peak shown by the LGEM and FSSE models. Later in the forecast period increasing shear and cooler SSTs should result in some weakening, but the global models predict that Nicole will become a large and powerful extratropical low over the North Atlantic in 3 to 4 days. Satellite and aircraft fixes indicate that Nicole is moving northwestward at about 4 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory. Nicole should turn northward into a break in the subtropical ridge by Wednesday and then turn northeastward as it reaches the mid-latitude westerlies. The dynamical models remain in good agreement, and the updated NHC forecast is again near the middle of the guidance envelope. The new official forecast is also very similar to the previous track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 27.4N 66.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 28.0N 66.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 29.1N 67.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 30.8N 66.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 33.1N 64.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 38.0N 59.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 41.0N 54.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 16/1800Z 41.5N 53.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown
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