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Hurricane Otis Forecast Discussion Number 27
2017-09-18 10:33:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Sep 18 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 180833 TCDEP5 Hurricane Otis Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 200 AM PDT Mon Sep 18 2017 What goes up must come down -- Otis is a classic example of what can happen with a small tropical cyclone. After rapidly intensifying earlier today, the cloud pattern has become rather poorly organized, with the center on the western edge of an irregular central dense overcast. The wind speed is reduced to 85 kt, on the high side of the latest Dvorak estimates, and this could be generous. Further weakening is likely since Otis has moved over cool SSTs and increasing shear is expected by tomorrow. Thus, rapid weakening is forecast, and the official intensity is reduced from the previous one, lying near the model consensus, although the corrected consensus models are even lower. Global models suggest Otis will degenerate into a remnant low within 2 days. Otis is still moving northward, recently at 5 kt. This northward motion should turn to the west and southwest over the next 36 hours as it is steered by a low-level ridge over the central Pacific. The global models are generally showing a stronger ridge, and the guidance has shifted farther southwest with the track of the expected remnants of the cyclone. The new NHC prediction follows the latest guidance, resulting in a faster track that is to the southwest of the previous official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 18.5N 127.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 19.2N 127.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 19.3N 127.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 19.0N 128.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 18.2N 129.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0600Z 16.5N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/0600Z 14.7N 135.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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