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Hurricane PATRICIA Public Advisory Number 14
2015-10-23 10:33:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 230833 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 400 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 ...PATRICIA... ...THE STRONGEST EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE ON RECORD... ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 105.5W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...200 MPH...325 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...880 MB...25.99 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Punta San Telmo A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within about 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Patricia was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 105.5 West. Patricia is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected later this morning, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast this afternoon. On the forecast track, the core of Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning area this afternoon or evening. Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 200 mph (325 km/h) with higher gusts. Patricia is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible today, but Patricia is expected to remain an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane through landfall. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 880 mb (25.99 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane warning area this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are beginning to spread across portions of the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area later today. RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, over the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, MIchoacan and Guerrero through Saturday. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Patricia are already affecting portions of the southern coast of Mexico, and will spread northwestward during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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