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Post-Tropical Cyclone Hernan Forecast Discussion Number 12
2026-08-15 22:42:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Aug 15 2026 406 WTPZ43 KNHC 152042 TCDEP3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Hernan Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082026 1100 AM HST Sat Aug 15 2026 Hernan continues to remain a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds with no active deep convection. A recent ASCAT pass showed that the winds are around 20 to 25 kts at most in the northern portion of the cyclone. As a result of that, the initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt. Given that the cyclone is moving into an area of higher shear and drier air, gradual weakening is expected over the next couple of days. The current forecast calls for Hernan to become a trough in about 60 h in agreement with the global models. The initial motion is 255/10 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north should steer Hernan and its remnants westward for the next few days. The new forecast track is similar to, but a little faster than, the previous track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 15.8N 135.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 16/0600Z 15.9N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 16/1800Z 16.1N 139.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/0600Z 16.4N 141.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1800Z 16.5N 143.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Katz/Berg
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