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Summary for Tropical Storm Joyce (AT1/AL112024)
2024-09-27 16:35:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 27 the center of Joyce was located near 18.1, -42.9 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Isaac Forecast Discussion Number 7
2024-09-27 16:34:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2024 505 WTNT45 KNHC 271434 TCDAT5 Hurricane Isaac Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2024 Isaac is holding steady this morning. Geostationary satellite data has shown consistent periodic bursts of convection wrapping around a small eye. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates range widely from 35 kt to 73 kt and the initial intensity is held at 65 kt for this advisory, closest to the SAB classification. The hurricane is moving eastward at 12 kt. Isaac is moving along the northern periphery of a mid-level ridge and should gradually turn to the east-northeast over the next couple of days. Models are more in agreement this cycle and show a more northeastward turn on days 4 and 5 as Isaac interacts with an upper-level trough located to its east. The latest track forecast is similar to the previous forecast through 72 h and slightly to the north at forecast periods beyond. Isaac could still strengthen further over the next day or so. While the vertical wind shear is expected to be strong-to-moderate, the upper-level divergence is forecast to increase and sea surface temperature should be relatively sufficient. Beyond a day or so, oceanic and environmental conditions become less conducive, which should begin to weaken Isaac by Saturday night or Sunday. The official intensity forecast is very similar to previous advisory, with a peak intensity of 75 kt by Saturday and the cyclone becoming extratropical by early next week. However, global models show the system losing its deep convection by Monday, and the official forecast now predicts Isaac becoming a post-tropical cyclone at that point. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 37.4N 46.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 38.1N 44.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 39.4N 40.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 41.0N 38.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 42.4N 36.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 30/0000Z 43.7N 35.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 44.8N 33.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 01/1200Z 48.0N 29.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 02/1200Z 52.1N 25.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Bucci
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Isaac Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2024-09-27 16:34:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 927 FONT15 KNHC 271433 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102024 1500 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Category: Transportation and Logistics