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Tropical Storm ALVIN Forecast Advisory Number 4
2013-05-16 10:56:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU MAY 16 2013 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 160856 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012013 0900 UTC THU MAY 16 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 106.9W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 106.9W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 106.5W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 9.5N 108.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 10.2N 109.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 11.0N 111.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 11.6N 112.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 12.8N 115.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 14.0N 117.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 14.5N 118.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.1N 106.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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