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Tropical Storm AMANDA Forecast Discussion Number 5
2014-05-23 22:33:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI MAY 23 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 232032 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 200 PM PDT FRI MAY 23 2014 Visible and microwave imagery suggest that Amanda's low- and mid-level circulation centers may be offset from each other due to some southerly shear, as analyzed by UW-CIMSS. However, convective banding continues to increase, and overall the system is taking on a more circular appearance. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have risen to T2.5/35 kt, and the initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. With relatively light shear and sea surface temperatures around 29C, Amanda is forecast to continue strengthening at least for the next 3 days or so. The intensity guidance has trended upward, and the LGEM and HWRF have now come in line with the SHIPS and GFDL models by showing Amanda reaching hurricane status in a few days. The SHIPS RI index continues to run high, and several of the models suggest that Amanda could reach hurricane strength by 36 hours. The NHC intensity forecast has been bumped upward, but further modifications may be required in future advisories if faster intensification appears to be setting in. Amanda is moving slowly around the southwestern side of a weak mid-level anticyclone centered over Mexico, and the initial motion is 290/3 kt. With the anticyclone expected to weaken further, Amanda is likely to creep west-northwestward for the next 2 to 3 days. The global models indicate that a mid-level low will form along 130W by day 3, and that feature should help turn Amanda toward the north at a slightly faster speed by the end of the forecast period. With the exception of the HWRF model, the remainder of the track guidance agrees on this slow northward turn. The track guidance envelope has contracted a bit, and no significant changes to the previous NHC track were required. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 11.0N 108.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 11.2N 109.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 11.6N 110.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 11.8N 110.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 12.0N 111.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 12.5N 111.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 14.0N 112.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 15.5N 112.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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