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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Forecast Discussion Number 12
2014-07-01 16:47:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 011447 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 Conventional satellite imagery indicates that the Douglas' cloud pattern has not changed much this morning, except for some cooling of cloud top temperatures northwest of the center. A blend of Dvorak intensity estimates and an ADT CI value of 2.2 are used to lower the initial wind speed estimate to 35 kt on this advisory. Although the vertical wind shear is forecast to remain low during the next few days, Douglas will be traversing gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures and ingesting somewhat drier and more stable air. These factors should result in a gradual weakening of the cyclone, and remnant low status is indicated by day 3. The NHC intensity forecast is reduced slightly relative to the previous one and is near the multi-model consensus. The initial motion estimate is 310/06. The subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone is weakening, which should result in a further reduction of forward speed on a west-northwesterly heading during the next couple of days. Once Douglas becomes a shallower vortex in 2-3 days, a bend of the track toward the west is expected, followed by some increase in forward speed. The NHC track forecast is basically an update of the previous one, nudged slightly to the north in the direction of the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 19.1N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 19.4N 116.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 19.7N 116.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 19.9N 116.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 20.1N 117.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 20.5N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1200Z 21.0N 120.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1200Z 21.5N 124.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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