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Tropical Storm Dora Forecast Discussion Number 3
2017-06-25 16:33:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 251433 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dora Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017 Dora's cloud pattern continues to become better organized, with more distinct convective banding features developing. The current intensity estimate is set at 45 kt in agreement with a Dvorak classification of T3.0 from TAFB. The dynamical environment should remain very favorable for additional intensification, with upper-level anticyclonic flow over the storm and low vertical shear for the next several days. Sea surface temperatures, however, should begin to decrease significantly in 48 hours or so, which will halt the strengthening trend. The official intensity forecast is close to the latest model consensus. It should be noted that Dora could strengthen more than indicated here in the short term, given that the SHIPS RII shows an above normal probability of rapid intensification during the next day or so. The initial motion estimate is 295/10 kt. A well-defined mid-tropospheric ridge is forecast to remain in place to the north of Dora for the next several days. This should maintain a west-northwestward track for much of the forecast period, and the track model guidance is tightly clustered for the next 3-4 days. Late in the forecast period, the weakening and increasingly shallow cyclone is likely to turn westward following the low-level steering flow. The official track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one. Although Dora is forecast to remain offshore, the outer bands of the tropical cyclone could bring locally heavy rains to portions of coastal southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 15.0N 101.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 15.8N 103.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 16.8N 105.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 17.8N 106.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 18.6N 108.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 19.6N 111.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 20.3N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 20.0N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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