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Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Discussion Number 17
2026-07-18 22:35:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026 530 WTPZ45 KNHC 182035 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052026 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026 The satellite presentation for Elida has actually improved slightly since the last advisory. More convection has developed on the northern side of the inner core, while still retaining the deep convection on the southern side as well. However, the inner core is still ragged. Given the slightly improved presentation and steady state fixes, the intensity has been held at 60 kt. The tropical storm is still turning poleward around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge, and the current motion is northwestward, or 300/9 kt. Elida is forecast to accelerate toward the north-northwest and then the north over the next 2-3 days as it is increasingly steered by a deep-layer trough encamped off the California coast. The track guidance has been fairly consistent, and only very small adjustments to the previous track were made. The storm has likely reached its peak intensity with only a few hours left over warm ocean temperatures. Steady weakening is forecast to begin later tonight, which could be accelerated by an increase in shear that is expected to begin in about a day. Elida is now expected to lose its deep convection and become post-tropical in about 60 hours. After that, the remnant low's circulation should dissipate off the California coast by day 5, around late Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 19.7N 124.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 21.0N 124.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 23.0N 125.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 25.2N 126.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 27.6N 127.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 21/0600Z 30.1N 127.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 21/1800Z 32.9N 127.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/1800Z 37.0N 127.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Katz/Cangialosi
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