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Tropical Storm Fernanda Forecast Discussion Number 35
2017-07-20 16:40:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 201440 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017 Since the last advisory, Fernanda has become significantly sheared with the low-level center now exposed to the southwest of a rather small area of deep convection. The initial intensity is reduced to 55 kt based on various satellite intensity estimates, and it is possible that this is generous. While the sea surface temperatures along the forecast track should increase, a combination of continued moderate-to-strong shear and entrainment of dry air should keep Fernanda steadily weakening through the forecast period. The cyclone is forecast to weaken to a depression in 24-36 h and degenerate into a remnant low shortly thereafter, with the new intensity forecast being an update of the previous forecast. The now-exposed center is a little west of the previous advisory position, and the initial motion is now 285/8. Fernanda is expected to move generally west-northwestward through the forecast period as the increasingly weak and shallow vortex is steered by the low-level trade winds. The new forecast track is parallel to, but south of, the previous track based on the current position and motion. However, it lies to the north of the consensus models and the center of the guidance envelope, and if current trends continue some additional southward adjustment of the track could occur later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 18.2N 139.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 18.6N 140.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 19.0N 142.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 19.5N 144.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 20.1N 145.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/1200Z 21.5N 149.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1200Z 22.5N 154.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/1200Z 24.0N 160.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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