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Tropical Storm Helene Forecast Advisory Number 16
2024-09-27 10:53:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 270853 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 0900 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 83.0W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 26 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT.......240NE 240SE 100SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 380SE 390SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 83.0W AT 27/0900Z...INLAND AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 83.3W...INLAND FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 36.4N 84.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 36.9N 87.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 36.7N 87.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 36.7N 87.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 36.9N 86.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.8N 83.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 27/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Isaac Forecast Discussion Number 6
2024-09-27 10:52:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2024 256 WTNT45 KNHC 270852 TCDAT5 Hurricane Isaac Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024 500 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2024 Isaac has continued to become better organized since the prior advisory. The earlier warm spot noted on IR satellite imagery has persisted and warmed further, with sufficently cold -55 to -60 C convective cloud tops encircling the feature. A helpful AMSR2 pass that became available after the prior advisory also showed an eye feature on both the 89-GHz and 37-GHz channels, the latter showing a cyan ring. These features suggest that Isaac has become a hurricane, and the initial intensity has been raised to 65 kt for this advisory. Isaac still is moving generally eastward this morning, estimated at 090/10 kt. This motion with a gradual turn to the east-northeast should occur over the next couple of days as the hurricane remains steered mostly by deep-layer flow along the northern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered to the southeast of Isaac. Once again, how quick this forward motion ends up being will be critical for its ultimate track down the road, with a track bifurcation continuing between the GFS and ECMWF solutions occuring beyond 60 h as to how much the upstream trough located to its east is able to interact and pick up the cyclone. Despite the spread in the guidance, the consensus aids are not that much altered from the prior cycle, and the NHC track forecast is quite similar to the prior advisory. Additional intensification is expected while the vertical wind shear remains only low to moderate and Isaac continues to be over sufficently warm sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) with instability being aided by cold upper-level temperatures. After 36 h, SSTs drop to 24 C and lower as shear increases markedly, which should induce a gradual weakening trend. Both the GFS and ECMWF suggest the cyclone should lose its deep convection sometime in the 72-96 h period, marking its transition to post-tropical in that time frame. The NHC intensity forecast is on the high side of the guidance, but is generally in line with the latest GFS-based SHIPS and LGEM guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 37.0N 48.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 37.5N 45.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 38.8N 42.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 40.4N 39.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 41.8N 37.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 29/1800Z 43.1N 35.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 44.0N 34.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 01/0600Z 46.9N 30.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 02/0600Z 50.4N 26.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Papin
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Hurricane Isaac (AT5/AL102024)
2024-09-27 10:50:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ISAAC BECOMES A HURRICANE... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 27 the center of Isaac was located near 37.0, -48.5 with movement E at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics