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Tropical Storm Helene Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2024-09-27 11:31:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2024 09:31:33 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm John Graphics
2024-09-27 11:02:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2024 09:02:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2024 09:02:12 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm John Forecast Discussion Number 18
2024-09-27 11:00:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Sep 27 2024 521 WTPZ45 KNHC 270900 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 AM CST Fri Sep 27 2024 This morning's satellite presentation consists of a partially exposed surface center with a primary banding feature wrapping around from the southeast. A few fragmented intermittent bursts of deep convection are also evident in the northwest quadrant of the cyclone. The initial intensity is set at 55 kt and is based on the TAFB and SAB Dvorak satellite intensity estimates and a UW-CIMSS DMINT objective estimate using SSMIS F16-17 passes of 56 and 55 kt, respectively. Gradual weakening should continue as the cyclone approaches and moves inland. The high terrain of the Sierra Madre Del Sur mountains is expected to disrupt what remains of John's inner core and should cause a faster rate of weakening. Therefore, John is expected to become a remnant low in 36 hrs. If the surface center remains intact and doesn't dissipate, the remnants should re-emerge over the water in a few days; however, regeneration appears unlikely. The NHC intensity forecast is weighed heavily on the global model guidance and the IVCN intensity consensus. John's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 320/4 kt, and a turn to the west-northwest with a slight increase in forward speed is forecast, provided John survives its interaction with the rugged mountainous terrain. The track forecast favors a compromise of the global model solutions and is just to the right of the HCCA consensus aid. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical Storm John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through today. The additional rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received very heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and catastrophic life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacán. 2. John is forecast to continue bringing tropical storm conditions across portions of the Tropical Storm Warnings area through today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 17.8N 102.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 18.6N 103.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 19.3N 104.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 19.6N 106.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/0600Z 20.3N 107.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
Category: Transportation and Logistics