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Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Discussion Number 5
2024-09-27 04:42:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 270242 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2024 Isaac's structure has quickly improved this evening on satellite imagery. Deeper cold convection down to -60 C has been fully wrapping around the center, and the last few frames show a warm spot, which could very well be a formative eye. While the subjective Dvorak classifications hasn't changed much this evening, the objective estimates, especially DPRINT and DMINT from UW-CIMSS have increased to 54 and 51 kt respectively. Similar to last night, a late arriving set of scatterometer passes showed a tight vortex with derived-winds up to 49 kt. Assuming some undersampling of the small circulation, the initial intensity is raised to 55 kt this advisory. Isaac appears to have made a wobble south of due east earlier this evening, but more recently has resumed an eastward motion at 90/10 kt. This motion with a gradual turn to the east-northeast should occur over the next couple of days. Afterwards, the forward motion of Isaac is likely to become very critical to its future track trajectory. The poleward shift in the guidance that started earlier today has continued, possibly due to the slower forecasted forward motion of the storm, making it more likely to be captured by an upstream mid-latitude trough digging in from the west. The latest NHC track forecast has continued the northward shift started on the prior cycle, but is still not as far north and east as the bulk of the guidance suite, and further adjustments in that direction may be needed in future forecasts. Given the improvement in Isaac's structure this evening, it's looking increasingly likely the storm will soon become a hurricane. Vertical wind shear remains under 20 kt while sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) between 26-27 C for the next 24 h should allow additional intensification. After that time, shear begins to increase more as SSTs also begin to cool. These factors are expected to result in a leveling off in intensity, though cold upper-level temperatures should maintain enough instability to keep moderate to deep convection near the system. By 72 h, weakening should begin, with extratropical transition likely to be underway, finishing sometime early next week over the high-latitudes of the North Atlantic. The latest NHC intensity forecast is above much of the guidance in the short-term due to recent satellite trends, but falls back towards the reliable HCCA consensus aid after 24 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 37.1N 49.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 37.1N 47.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 38.1N 44.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 39.5N 40.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 41.1N 37.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 29/1200Z 42.6N 36.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 43.7N 35.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 01/0000Z 46.0N 30.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 02/0000Z 50.0N 26.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Papin
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Isaac Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2024-09-27 04:39:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 270239 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102024 0300 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Isaac (AT5/AL102024)
2024-09-27 04:39:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ISAAC STRENGTHENING AND LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 26 the center of Isaac was located near 37.1, -49.8 with movement E at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics