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Tropical Storm JULIO Forecast Discussion Number 4
2014-08-04 22:54:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON AUG 04 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 042054 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 200 PM PDT MON AUG 04 2014 Tropical Storm Julio has become substantially better organized during the past several hours. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased and now support an initial intensity of 50 kt. A band of deep convection is beginning to wrap most of the way around the circulation, and a 1730 UTC ASCAT pass shows that the low- and mid-level centers are now close to being vertically aligned. Julio has accelerated and the initial motion estimate is now 270/14. A continued westward motion is expected for the next 5 days while the tropical cyclone moves along the southern periphery of a strong ridge over the eastern Pacific. There has been no significant change in the model guidance for this forecast cycle, and the official forecast now lies very near the multi-model consensus. The intensity forecast presents a larger challenge, and several of the models now predict more intensification. DSHP, LGEM, and the HWRF all suggest that Julio will become a hurricane by tomorrow afternoon, which seems reasonable given the recent vertical alignment of the vortex. After that, there is considerable uncertainty as to how much additional strengthening will occur, with DSHP forecasting a 100-kt major hurricane, and GHMI peaking at 70 kt. The official forecast splits these scenarios and peaks at 85 kt, near the intensity consensus. Late in the forecast period, Julio is forecast to pass over cooler SSTs which should lead to weakening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 13.5N 121.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 13.4N 123.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 13.7N 125.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 14.1N 128.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 14.6N 131.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 15.4N 136.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 16.0N 142.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 17.0N 149.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky/Berg
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