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Tropical Storm JULIO Forecast Discussion Number 9
2014-08-06 04:39:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 05 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 060238 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 05 2014 After a decrease in the overall thunderstorm activity earlier today, a new burst of deep convection has redeveloped near the center. The outflow remains fair in all quadrants suggesting that there is little wind shear over the cyclone. Based on satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB of T3.5 on the Dvorak scale, the initial intensity is been kept at 55 knots. Given the current structure in both conventional satellite and microwave data, as well as the prevailing low shear, it is very likely that Julio will reach hurricane status within the next 6 to 12 hours. Some additional strengthening is then forecast. However, despite the expected light shear, the strengthening will be limited by the cooler ocean ahead of Julio, and the NHC forecast calls for weakening beyond 36 hours. This is consistent with the intensity models which have an upper intensity limit of 80 knots by the SHIPS model. The best estimate of the initial motion is 285 degrees at 13 knots. Julio is well embedded within the easterly flow around the periphery of the subtropical ridge. Global models keep a strong ridge to the north of the cyclone for the next 2 to 3 days, and forecast some slight erosion of the western portion of the ridge thereafter. This pattern should keep Julio on a general west-northwest track through the forecast period. Although the NHC forecast is similar to the previous one, it has been adjusted slightly northward to be consistent with the multi-model consensus TVCE and be more centered within the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 14.4N 127.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 14.9N 129.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 15.5N 133.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 16.3N 136.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 17.0N 139.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 18.0N 144.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 20.0N 149.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 22.0N 154.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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