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Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Discussion Number 38
2017-09-14 22:34:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 142034 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2017 The cloud pattern of Jose has become more symmetric this afternoon, with the apparent center perhaps a little more centered in the central dense overcast. Dvorak intensity estimates, however, are unchanged from six hours ago, so the initial wind speed remains 60 kt. Visible imagery suggest some drier air has become entrained into the circulation of the storm, with outflow boundaries noted in the northern semicircle. This dry air should gradually mix out while Jose remains over warm waters with light-to-moderate shear conditions. This environment favors some strengthening over the next few days, and the official forecast reflects this idea, lying between the model consensus and the global models. In the longer term, shear is forecast to increase and water temperatures should moderate. Therefore, some weakening is probable at days 4 and 5, and that is reflected in the official forecast. Jose continues to move west-northwestward, now at about 7 kt. The storm should turn northwestward by Saturday and northward by early Monday while it moves around a ridge over the western Atlantic Ocean. Model guidance, however, is not in good agreement on the strength of that ridge, leading to some significant model differences on this cycle. The leftmost global model is the UKMET, which moves Jose significantly farther westward than the other guidance in the short term, leading to a closer pass of Jose to the Outer Banks. However, most of the rest of the guidance show the northward turn starting earlier, leading to a more offshore track. Given the UKMET's recent westward bias, the new NHC forecast will put more weight on the GFS/ECMWF solutions, leading to very little change to the previous track. It should be noted there is a fair bit of spread in the global models and their ensembles, which does not give me a lot of confidence in the long-term track forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions. 2. Jose could produce other direct impacts next week along portions of the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward to New England, but it is too soon to determine what those impacts might be or where they could occur. Interests along U.S. east coast from North Carolina northward to New England should monitor the progress of Jose during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 25.2N 67.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 25.6N 68.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 26.5N 70.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 27.5N 71.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 28.6N 72.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 30.7N 72.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 33.5N 72.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 36.5N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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