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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 29
2019-09-19 16:48:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 191448 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Kiko has generally changed little during the last several hours. The storm remains relatively compact with deep convection organized in bands to the north and east of the low-level center. The initial intensity remains 55 kt, which is near the high end of the latest satellite intensity estimates. Earlier ASCAT data indicated that the strongest winds were located to the east of the center. The storm is expected to be in relatively favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions during the next few days, and most of the dynamical models respond by showing the cyclone intensifying during that time period. Conversely, the SHIPS and LGEM models show little change in strength during the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast lies between those scenarios and is in best agreement with the consensus aids. This forecast is a tad lower than the previous one. Kiko is moving slowly westward, steered by a subtropical ridge to its north. A turn to the northwest is expected later today in response to the ridge weakening and a disturbance to the southwest of Kiko. A west to west-southwest motion is likely over the weekend as another ridge strengthens to the northwest of the cyclone. The models continue to struggle on the evolution of the steering pattern for Kiko with the spread between the GFS and ECMWF at 120 h being around 500 n mi. The NHC track forecast remains roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope not far from the consensus aids. Regardless of the details, it seems likely that Kiko will continue to move slowly over the southwestern part of the east Pacific basin for several more days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 16.0N 128.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 16.4N 129.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 17.1N 130.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 17.7N 130.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 17.8N 131.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 17.0N 133.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 16.5N 135.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 18.0N 137.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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