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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 30
2019-09-19 22:46:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 192045 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 In terms of organization (and latitude) Kiko appears to have hit rock bottom and may now be on its way back up (and north). After the last advisory, Kiko briefly lost all of its central deep convection and consisted of a low-level swirl of clouds. Since then, convective activity has increased substantially and now a rain band appears to be trying to wrap around the northern semicircle of the tropical storm. ASCAT data around 1800 UTC showed max winds of only 35-40 kt, but given the improvement in the structure of Kiko since that time, the initial intensity is conservatively lowered to 45 kt. Aside from small adjustments due to the lower initial intensity, little change was made to the intensity forecast. Most of the guidance calls for at least slight strengthening, and the dynamical models are still calling for Kiko to become a hurricane again. Dry air is still the primary limiting factor, and if Kiko can ever reform a well-defined inner-core, it could strengthen more quickly than forecast. By the end of the forecast period, Kiko could encounter an even drier environment and most of the guidance calls for weakening. Kiko is beginning to turn west-northwestward, and a turn toward the northwest is expected soon. The tropical storm is still forecast to move slowly westward on a wave-like path due to fluctuations in the strength of a mid-level ridge to the north. The track guidance is in particularly poor agreement on the speed Kiko will move west and by day 5 the ECMWF and GFS are 750 mi apart. Although only minor changes were made to the NHC forecast, which remains near the model consensus, confidence in the track forecast is much lower than usual. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 16.3N 129.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 16.8N 130.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 17.5N 130.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 17.9N 131.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 17.8N 132.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 17.0N 134.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 17.0N 136.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 18.0N 138.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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