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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 8
2019-09-14 10:39:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 434 WTPZ43 KNHC 140839 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 A 0205 UTC WindSat pass showed that Kiko's low-level structure has become significantly better defined. The storm has also been producing a persistent cluster of deep convection, although microwave fixes suggest that the surface center is located beneath the eastern side of the convective mass. Satellite intensity estimates range from 45-55 kt, but scatterometer data from a few hours ago indicated that maximum winds were between 40-45 kt. Kiko's initial intensity is therefore held at 45 kt, but the cyclone's improved structure likely means that its winds will increase again soon. There's still a swath of dry air to the north and west of the storm, but now that the inner core has become more established, Kiko should be able to take advantage of low shear and sufficiently warm waters to strengthen during the next couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast is very close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) and Florida State Superensemble (FSSE) during the first 36 hours, showing a little more strengthening than the previous forecast, and making Kiko a hurricane in 24 hours. While the new forecast is also a little higher at 48 hours, it's still below the HCCA, FSSE, and HWRF solutions, so additional adjustment could be required in subsequent advisories. Weakening should commence by day 3 due to little to no oceanic heat content and gradually increasing westerly shear. Kiko is moving west-northwestward, or 285/8 kt. Mid-level ridging to the north should drive the cyclone on a westward to west-northwestward heading for the entire forecast period. The most significant gain in latitude should occur from Sunday through Tuesday when Kiko is at its strongest and responds to a break in the ridge between 120W and 130W. While the GFS and ECMWF models still prefer northern and southern solutions within the guidance envelope, respectively, the distance between the two at day 5 has been cut in half in the latest model runs, suggesting that the track uncertainty is not as high as it was previously. The NHC track forecast remains close to the various multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 17.3N 117.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 17.4N 118.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 17.7N 119.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 18.1N 121.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 18.6N 122.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 19.5N 124.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 20.2N 126.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 19/0600Z 20.6N 129.6W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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