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Tropical Storm MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 27
2014-08-28 16:42:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 281442 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 800 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014 Marie has continued to produce a small area of convection south and east of the center for the past few hours, but the tops have been warming recently. The initial intensity is set at 40 kt, a bit above the latest satellite classifications. Deep convection should dissipate shortly now that Marie is moving over SSTs around 22C, and Marie should become post-tropical by tonight. Gradual weakening is expected during the forecast period, as it will take the large circulation some time to spin down even without convection. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one. The initial motion estimate is 310/13. A general northwestward motion is expected for the next couple of days while the cyclone remains under the influence of a mid-level ridge centered near the coast of southern California. Marie is forecast to slow down considerably and turn westward and west-southwestward by the end of the period as it is steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one after adjustment for the initial position and motion. Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and the coast of southern California will gradually subside through Friday. These swells could still produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding around the time of high tide. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 25.4N 128.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 26.7N 130.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 28.2N 132.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 30/0000Z 29.4N 134.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/1200Z 30.3N 135.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/1200Z 30.8N 137.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1200Z 30.7N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/1200Z 30.0N 140.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan
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