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Tropical Storm MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 29
2014-08-29 04:53:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 290253 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 800 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014 Marie has only been producing patchy shallow convection for the past 12 hours or so, and the daily real-time global SST analysis shows that the center is approaching water as cold as 21C. Since deep convection should not redevelop in this environment, Marie is expected to become post-tropical overnight--if it isn't already. In the meantime, maximum winds are assumed to still be around 35 kt based on an earlier ASCAT pass. The large circulation will take some time to spin down, and a gradually weakening remnant low is forecast through the 5-day period. The initial motion remains 310/14 kt, with Marie moving along the western edge of a low- to mid-level ridge located near the coast of California and the Baja California peninsula. Marie will slow down during the next day or so as it moves away from the ridge. Then, the low-level flow will steer the remnant low west-northwestward and eventually west-southwestward by the end of the period. The NHC track is very similar to the previous one and close to the TVCE model consensus. Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and the coast of southern California will gradually subside through Friday. These swells could still produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding around the time of high tide. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 27.0N 131.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 28.2N 133.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 30/0000Z 29.4N 134.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 30/1200Z 30.3N 135.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/0000Z 30.8N 136.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0000Z 30.8N 138.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/0000Z 30.5N 140.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/0000Z 30.0N 142.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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