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Tropical Storm OCTAVE Forecast Discussion Number 6
2013-10-14 10:53:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON OCT 14 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 140853 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 200 AM PDT MON OCT 14 2013 OCTAVE APPEARS TO BE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH. ALTHOUGH THE STORM HAS MORE OF A SHEARED APPEARANCE THAT IT DID EARLIER...IT STILL IS PRODUCING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0430 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 50 KT...AND THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 45 TO 65 KT. BASED ON ALL OF THESE DATA...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED ESTIMATE REMAINS 55 KT. OCTAVE HAS NOW CROSSED THE 26C ISOTHERM AND IS MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER AIR. THESE EXPECTED HOSTILE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE OCTAVE TO STEADILY WEAKEN...AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE A REMNANT LOW BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE BAJA PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT. A SLOWER NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER TODAY WHILE OCTAVE ROUNDS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER EASTERN MEXICO. ON TUESDAY...THE WEAK SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN EVEN FURTHER AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD IN THE LIGHTER LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFS RUN. THE CURRENT TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS DO NOT WARRANT TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS STORM. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH OCTAVE IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE RAINS WILL CONTINUE FOR A DAY OR TWO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 21.6N 113.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 23.2N 114.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 24.8N 113.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 25.9N 113.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 26.5N 112.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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