je.st
news
Tropical Storm OCTAVE Forecast Discussion Number 7
2013-10-14 16:43:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON OCT 14 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 141443 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 800 AM PDT MON OCT 14 2013 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/11 KT. OCTAVE IS ON OR JUST NORTH OF THE LATITUDE OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS EAST. AS A RESULT...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS THE CYCLONE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND A BROAD MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE FORECAST TRACK WAS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT...BUT REMAINS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE. OCTAVE IS MOVING OVER A NARROW TONGUE OF COLD WATER LESS THAN 24C... AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AS A RESULT. AVERAGE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO 45-50 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 50 KT. OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT REMAINS OVER SUB-24C SSTS AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF MORE THAN 30 KT BY 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE WILL ALSO BE PASSING CLOSE ENOUGH TO A TIGHT SST GRADIENT AND WARMER WATER JUST TO ITS EAST THAT COULD KEEP AN INFLUX OF MOIST UNSTABLE AIR FLOWING INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH WOULD HELP MAINTAIN CONVECTION AND TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY A LITTLE LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...SHIP PINX- WESTERDAM THAT HAS BEEN TRAVERSING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA THIS MORNING HAS RECENTLY REPORTED 31-KT WINDS...INDICATING THAT OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF THE WIND FIELD IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE IS NOW OCCURRING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING...STRENGTH...AND SIZE OF THE OUTER WINDFIELD OF OCTAVE AT LANDFALL...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR POTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. EVEN IF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NOT OBSERVED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM OCTAVE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THEREFORE...INTERESTS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 22.6N 113.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 24.2N 113.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 25.4N 112.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 26.0N 112.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/1200Z 26.0N 112.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||