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Tropical Storm OCTAVE Forecast Discussion Number 8
2013-10-14 22:46:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON OCT 14 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 142046 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 200 PM PDT MON OCT 14 2013 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 015/08 KT. OCTAVE HAS MADE THE ANTICIPATED TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS OCTAVE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT ONCE AGAIN...AND LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND ARE NOW A CONSENSUS T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. TWO PARTIAL ASCAT PASSES ONLY CAUGHT THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND SHOWED 40-KT WIND SPEEDS IN THAT PART OF THE CIRCULATION. AS A RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 45 KT. STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SUB-24C SSTS AND SHARPLY INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR OF MORE THAN 30 KT BY 12 HOURS. SOME OROGRAPHIC FORCING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE APPEARS TO HAVE HELP MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF MOIST UNSTABLE AIR THAT HAS BEEN FEEDING THE CONVECTION NORTH OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THAT FAVORABLE CONNECTION SHOULD CEASE BY 24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER...WHICH WILL BRING ABOUT A RAPID DEMISE OF THE CYCLONE...AND OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 36 HOURS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. IF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NOT OBSERVED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...STRONGER WINDS COULD STILL OCCUR AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM OCTAVE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THEREFORE...INTERESTS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 24.1N 113.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 25.1N 112.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 25.8N 112.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 26.2N 112.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/1800Z 26.0N 112.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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