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Tropical Storm Octave Forecast Discussion Number 5
2019-10-18 22:33:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 182032 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019 200 PM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019 Octave's deep convection dissipated earlier this morning, leaving a well-defined swirl of low clouds in visible satellite imagery. With the degradation of the cyclone's structure, recent ASCAT data revealed that maximum winds have decreased to 35 kt. A new small burst of convection is going up to the west of the center, but it's difficult to know if this convection will continue and if it will meet the organizational requirements for a tropical cyclone. The new NHC forecast leaves open the possibility that Octave could maintain tropical cyclone status for another 24 hours, but it's probably at least equally likely that the storm could degenerate into a remnant low tonight if convection doesn't increase substantially. Either way, dry air and increasing shear are expected to cause Octave's winds to continue decreasing for the next 24 hours, with the remnant low maintaining 25-kt winds through the end of the forecast period. Octave's motion has been northward, or 360/4 kt. This motion is likely to be suppressed within the next 12-24 hours as a low-level trough to the north drops southward, and Octave is expected to make a tight clockwise loop during the 5-day forecast period. The updated NHC track forecast is a little east of the previous forecast, moved in the direction of the multi-model consensus aids. However, it should be noted that by day 5, there is a 700 n mi spread between the easternmost HWRF model and the westernmost UKMET model, suggesting that there is quite a bit of uncertainty on exactly where Octave will end up. Fortunately, it is not likely to be a significant cyclone at that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 11.0N 126.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 11.6N 126.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 11.9N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/0600Z 11.7N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/1800Z 11.3N 125.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1800Z 11.1N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/1800Z 11.9N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/1800Z 12.9N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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