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Tropical Storm Otis Forecast Discussion Number 29
2017-09-18 22:40:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 18 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 182039 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Otis Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 18 2017 Otis has continued to weaken very rapidly. Without any recent ASCAT data (or a reliable conceptual model for open-water rapid weakening), it is tough for me to estimate just how fast the cyclone is weakening. Satellite classifications remain constrained, but given the continued lack of convection over the center, the initial intensity has been lowered farther, to 40 kt. Stratocumulus clouds wrap well into the southwest quadrant, evidence that Otis is embedded within a very stable environment. Continued weakening seems inevitable, and the only real question is how soon Otis will become a remnant low. The forecast now shows the cyclone becoming a depression within 12 hours, and a remnant low within 24 hours. Given current convective trends, Otis could become a remnant low much sooner than indicated. The remnant circulation is forecast to persist for a couple days after that, in agreement with the most recent ECMWF and GFS model runs. As expected, Otis is coming to a halt, now that the circulation has become very shallow. Within the next 12 to 24 hours, the tropical storm is still expected to be steered toward the southwest by a ridge over the central Pacific, and a southwestward motion should continue until the cyclone dissipates. The NHC forecast is a little south of the previous one since Otis appears to have already begun its turn toward the southwest, and it is close to the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 19.1N 127.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 19.1N 128.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 18.7N 128.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/0600Z 17.8N 129.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/1800Z 16.6N 130.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1800Z 14.5N 133.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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