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Tropical Storm Pilar Forecast Discussion Number 7
2017-09-25 10:57:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 250857 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182017 300 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017 Although Pilar continues to produce an area of deep convection, surface observations and satellite data indicate that the circulation of the storm is losing definition. In fact, recent ASCAT data suggest that Pilar could already be an open trough. However, we prefer to keep issuing advisories until more confirmation on the structure of the system is available. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Pilar is very near the west coast of Mexico and it is expected to move along or just off the coast during the next day or two. The interaction with land combined with a significant increase in southwesterly shear should cause the cyclone to weaken to a tropical depression later today, and dissipate within the next 24 to 36 hours. Since Pilar lacks a clear center, the initial motion of 340/8 kt is uncertain. A slower north-northwest motion in the low- to mid-level flow is expected until the system dissipates. This track forecast lies closest to the latest GFS model run. The main hazard associated with Pilar is the potential for heavy rainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, over the states of Nayarit, the southern portion of Sinaloa, and the southwestern portion of Durango during the next day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 22.2N 106.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 22.8N 106.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 23.6N 107.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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