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Hurricane NICOLE Graphics
2016-10-12 01:38:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 11 Oct 2016 23:38:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 11 Oct 2016 21:04:35 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)
2016-10-12 01:37:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICOLE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... ...PREPARATIONS IN BERMUDA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION... As of 8:00 PM AST Tue Oct 11 the center of NICOLE was located near 27.3, -66.5 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 974 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane NICOLE Public Advisory Number 31A
2016-10-12 01:37:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST TUE OCT 11 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 112337 TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NICOLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 800 PM AST TUE OCT 11 2016 ...NICOLE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... ...PREPARATIONS IN BERMUDA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.3N 66.5W ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nicole was located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 66.5 West. Nicole has moved little during the past few hours, but a slow northwest to north- northwest motion is expected tonight. A turn toward the north and an increase in forward speed are expected Wednesday morning, followed by a northeast turn late Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicole is expected to approach Bermuda Wednesday night and pass near Bermuda on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Nicole is forecast to be near major hurricane strength by late Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.76 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in Bermuda. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin on Bermuda by Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin Wednesday afternoon. RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over Bermuda through Thursday. SURF: Swells associated with Nicole will affect Bermuda during the next few days. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents. Please refer to products being issued by the Bermuda Weather Service. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Hurricane NICOLE Graphics
2016-10-11 22:39:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 11 Oct 2016 20:39:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 11 Oct 2016 20:37:35 GMT
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Hurricane NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 31
2016-10-11 22:38:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST TUE OCT 11 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 112037 TCDAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 PM AST TUE OCT 11 2016 Nicole has continued to strengthen today with the cloud pattern becoming much better organized since this morning. A 20 to 25 n mi wide eye has developed and become better defined within a rather symmetric central dense overcast. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that investigated Nicole this afternoon has measured peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 79 kt, SFMR winds of around 65 kt, and a minimum pressure of 980 mb. Based on these data, and the continued increase in organization the initial wind speed has been increased to 70 kt. Environmental conditions consisting of low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures along the track of Nicole should allow for additional intensification during the next day or so. In fact, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index shows nearly a 30 percent chance of a 30 kt increase in wind speed during the next 24 hours. The NHC intensity forecast has been increased from the previous advisory and calls for Nicole to be near major hurricane strength when it passes near Bermuda in 36 to 48 hours. The NHC forecast calls for a faster increase in strength during the next 24 hours, but is close to the peak shown by the LGEM and FSSE models. Later in the forecast period increasing shear and cooler SSTs should result in some weakening, but the global models predict that Nicole will become a large and powerful extratropical low over the North Atlantic in 3 to 4 days. Satellite and aircraft fixes indicate that Nicole is moving northwestward at about 4 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory. Nicole should turn northward into a break in the subtropical ridge by Wednesday and then turn northeastward as it reaches the mid-latitude westerlies. The dynamical models remain in good agreement, and the updated NHC forecast is again near the middle of the guidance envelope. The new official forecast is also very similar to the previous track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 27.4N 66.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 28.0N 66.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 29.1N 67.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 30.8N 66.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 33.1N 64.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 38.0N 59.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 41.0N 54.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 16/1800Z 41.5N 53.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown
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