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Hurricane HILDA Public Advisory Number 8
2015-08-07 22:51:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 07 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 072051 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE HILDA ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 07 2015 ...HILDA QUICKLY STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.7N 138.3W ABOUT 1215 MI...1950 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilda was located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 138.3 West. Hilda is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue this afternoon. A turn toward the west-northwest should occur tonight or Saturday. Hilda has rapidly strengthened during the past several hours, and maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane HILDA Forecast Advisory Number 8
2015-08-07 22:51:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 07 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 072051 TCMEP5 HURRICANE HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015 2100 UTC FRI AUG 07 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 138.3W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB EYE DIAMETER 5 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 138.3W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 137.6W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 13.0N 139.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 13.7N 142.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 14.4N 144.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 15.2N 145.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 17.0N 148.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 19.0N 150.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 20.5N 151.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 138.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm HILDA Forecast Discussion Number 7
2015-08-07 16:35:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 07 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 071435 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 07 2015 Infrared satellite data, along with VIIRS moonlight visible imagery and a just received AMSR-2 overpass, show that Hilda is maintaining strong convection near the center. However, the system continues to have a sheared appearence, which is somewhat surprising since the available data show less than 10 kt of shear. The various satellite intensity estimates range between 45-55 kt, so the initial intensity remains 50 kt. The cirrus outflow is good to the west and poor to the east. The initial motion is 275/11. For the next 48-72 hours, Hilda should be steered westward to west-northwestward by the deep-layer subtropical ridge to its north. After that time, a mid- to upper-level low is expected to develop north of the Hawaiian Islands, which should cause Hilda to turn northwestward and north-northwestward. The track guidance again generally agrees on this scenario, but there remains a significant spread in how sharply Hilda will turn based on the strength of the cyclone after 72 hours. The GFS, GFDL, and GFDN, which depict a stronger cyclone, have sharper turns and end up on the east side of the guidance envelope. The ECMWF, HWRF, and GFS ensemble mean forecast a weaker Hilda, and they show a more westward motion. The UKMET and the various consensus models are between these extremes. The new forecast track, which is little changed from the previous track, follows this part of the guidance. The dynamical models are in good agreement that whatever shear is occurring should diminish in 24 hours or less. This should allow a faster rate of development, with Hilda forecast to become a hurricane in 24-36 hours and reach its peak intensity in 48-72 hours. After 72 hours, the cyclone is expected to encounter strong southwesterly vertical shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures, and this combination should cause significant weakening. The new intensity forecast has minor adjustments from the previous forecast and is in best overall agreement with the intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 12.8N 136.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 13.0N 138.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 13.6N 140.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 14.3N 142.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 15.1N 144.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 16.5N 147.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 18.5N 149.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 20.5N 150.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm HILDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2015-08-07 16:35:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 07 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 071434 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015 1500 UTC FRI AUG 07 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 145W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 42(57) 14(71) 1(72) X(72) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 11(36) 1(37) X(37) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) X(15) X(15) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) X(12) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 7(21) 1(22) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) 2(20) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 2(16) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 2(13) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm HILDA (EP5/EP102015)
2015-08-07 16:34:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HILDA REMAINS ON A WESTWARD COURSE... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Aug 7 the center of HILDA was located near 12.8, -136.7 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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