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Tropical Storm HILDA Public Advisory Number 7
2015-08-07 16:34:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 07 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 071434 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HILDA ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 07 2015 ...HILDA REMAINS ON A WESTWARD COURSE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 136.7W ABOUT 1310 MI...2105 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1890 MI...3040 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilda was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 136.7 West. Hilda is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through the day. A turn toward the west-northwest should occur tonight or Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Hilda could become a hurricane tonight or on Saturday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm HILDA Forecast Advisory Number 7
2015-08-07 16:34:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 07 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 071434 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015 1500 UTC FRI AUG 07 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 136.7W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 136.7W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 136.1W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 13.0N 138.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 13.6N 140.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 14.3N 142.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 15.1N 144.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 16.5N 147.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 18.5N 149.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 20.5N 150.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 136.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm HILDA Graphics
2015-08-07 11:06:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 07 Aug 2015 08:39:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 07 Aug 2015 09:06:37 GMT
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hilda
Tropical Storm HILDA Forecast Discussion Number 6
2015-08-07 10:38:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI AUG 07 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 070837 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015 200 AM PDT FRI AUG 07 2015 A GPM Microwave Imager pass from 0431 UTC revealed that Hilda's center was located just under the eastern edge of the deep convection due to some easterly shear. The overall cloud pattern has not really improved since earlier advisories, and the initial intensity remains 50 kt. This is supported by Dvorak estimates of T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and T3.0/45 kt from SAB. Although Hilda's intensity has been steady for the past 12 hours, easterly shear is relaxing, and the cyclone should be able to strengthen soon. Hilda is forecast to be in a low-shear environment and over sea surface temperatures of 27-29C during the next three days or so, during which time intensification is expected. On days 4 and 5, weakening is anticipated as southwesterly shear of 25-35 kt begins to affect the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is near the upper bound of the guidance and shows a peak intensity occurring in about 48 hours. Hilda is moving due west, or 270/11 kt. The cyclone should turn west-northwestward by 36 hours as it approaches a weakness in the subtropical ridge. Then, a mid- to upper-level low is expected to develop north of the Hawaiian Islands in about three days, which should cause Hilda to turn northwestward and north-northwestward on days 4 and 5. The track guidance generally agrees on this scenario, but there is significant discrepancy on how sharply Hilda will turn after 72 hours. The GFS and GFDL, which depict a stronger cyclone, have sharper turns and end up on the east side of the guidance envelope. The ECMWF, on the other hand, does not intensify Hilda as much and is well to the west of the other track models. The updated NHC track forecast shows a sharper turn than in the previous advisory, but the turn is not nearly as sharp as suggested by the GFS, GFDL, and the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 12.6N 135.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 12.8N 137.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 13.2N 139.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 13.9N 141.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 14.7N 143.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 16.1N 147.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 18.0N 149.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 20.5N 150.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm HILDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2015-08-07 10:37:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 07 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 070837 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015 0900 UTC FRI AUG 07 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 29(34) 31(65) 2(67) X(67) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 21(29) 1(30) X(30) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) 1(12) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 8(20) 2(22) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 4(18) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 3(14) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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