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Summary for Tropical Storm HILDA (EP5/EP102015)
2015-08-07 10:37:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HILDA CONTINUES WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri Aug 7 the center of HILDA was located near 12.6, -135.6 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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hilda
Tropical Storm HILDA Public Advisory Number 6
2015-08-07 10:37:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI AUG 07 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 070837 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HILDA ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015 200 AM PDT FRI AUG 07 2015 ...HILDA CONTINUES WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.6N 135.6W ABOUT 1380 MI...2225 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1830 MI...2945 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilda was located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 135.6 West. Hilda is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through the day. A turn toward the west-northwest should occur tonight or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Hilda could become a hurricane by tonight. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm HILDA Forecast Advisory Number 6
2015-08-07 10:37:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 07 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 070837 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015 0900 UTC FRI AUG 07 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 135.6W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 135.6W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 135.0W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 12.8N 137.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 13.2N 139.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 13.9N 141.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 14.7N 143.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 16.1N 147.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 18.0N 149.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 20.5N 150.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 135.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm HILDA Graphics
2015-08-07 05:14:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 07 Aug 2015 02:43:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 07 Aug 2015 03:06:36 GMT
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hilda
Tropical Storm HILDA Forecast Discussion Number 5
2015-08-07 04:42:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU AUG 06 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 070242 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015 800 PM PDT THU AUG 06 2015 The cloud pattern of Hilda has not changed much since the previous advisory. The cyclone has a couple of curved convective bands with a small symmetric central dense overcast. Recent microwave data also indicates that the inner core has not become any better organized during the afternoon. A blend of the subjective and objective Dvorak T-numbers support maintaining an initial intensity of 50 kt. Hilda is expected to remain in an environment of low vertical wind shear and over warm sea surface temperatures during the next couple of days. These conditions favor intensification and the NHC forecast brings Hilda to hurricane strength within the next 24 hours. The new official forecast shows a slightly higher peak intensity in about 48 hours, which is a blend of the latest statistical guidance. After that time, a drier and more stable air mass and increasing southwesterly shear around 96 h are expected to induce weakening. The NHC forecast is below the model guidance late in the forecast period, since the small tropical cyclone is likely to spin down more quickly as a result of the strong shear. The tropical storm is moving due west or 270 degrees at 12 kt. The forecast reasoning remains the same as before. Hilda is expected to turn west-northwestward in about 36 hours when it nears the western periphery of a subtropical ridge to its north. In about 96 hours, Hilda is forecast to turn northwestward due to a developing weakness in the subtropical ridge. The model guidance is in good agreement through day 3, but diverge somewhat thereafter. The ECMWF and UKMET show a faster forward motion and are along the western edge of the guidance envelope. Meanwhile, the GFS and HWRF are along the eastern edge. The updated NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory and near the GFS ensemble mean late in the period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 12.7N 134.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 12.7N 136.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 13.0N 138.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 13.7N 140.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 14.5N 142.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 16.3N 146.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 17.8N 148.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 19.0N 150.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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