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Tropical Storm HILDA Forecast Discussion Number 3
2015-08-06 16:49:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU AUG 06 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 061449 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015 800 AM PDT THU AUG 06 2015 The cyclone's cloud pattern has significantly increased in organization since late yesterday. There is now a small central mass of deep convection, with a band on the northern side of the circulation. The center, according to an 1132 UTC SSM/I pass, is also directly underneath this central convection, and the same pass indicates increasing symmetry to the overall convective structure. Satellite classifications from 1200 UTC were T2.0/30 kt and T2.5/35 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively. The initial intensity estimate is set at the higher end of these estimates (35 kt), based on the even greater organization seen in satellite imagery since that time. The initial motion is toward the west or 275/11. The general forecast scenario is for a subtropical ridge north of the cyclone to steer Hilda westward for the next couple of days with a slight bend toward the west-northwest after 36 hours. In about 72 hours, the cyclone should move around the western end of the ridge and encounter a break in this feature at the end of the forecast period. This pattern should cause Hilda to turn northwestward with a decrease in forward speed by 96 hours. The GFS-based guidance shows a stronger ridge and a west-southwestward to westward track during the next 2 to 3 days, while the ECMWF has a weaker ridge and a track farther north. The official forecast is closer to the ECMWF solution and near but faster than the previous one through 72 hours. Overall, the NHC forecast lies to the right of the multi-model consensus, which is dominated by the GFS guidance. After 72 hours, the official track is near the multi-model consensus but not as far west as the GFS/ECMWF model solutions. Large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic factors are forecast to be conducive for intensification through for the next 72 hours or so, except for a somewhat drier lower to middle troposphere along Hilda's path in 2 to 3 days. When the cyclone gains latitude late in the forecast period, it should begin to weaken due to increasing southwesterly shear associated with a mid- to upper-level trough expected to be near the longitude of Hawaii. The official intensity forecast is higher than the previous one through 72 hours and is higher than the multi-model consensus, but little change was made to the intensity forecast late in the period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 12.7N 132.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 12.9N 133.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 13.0N 135.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 13.5N 137.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 14.1N 139.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 15.4N 144.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 17.1N 146.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 18.8N 149.4W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Storm HILDA Graphics
2015-08-06 16:48:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 06 Aug 2015 14:48:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 06 Aug 2015 14:47:46 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm HILDA (EP5/EP102015)
2015-08-06 16:47:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Aug 6 the center of HILDA was located near 12.7, -132.3 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm HILDA Public Advisory Number 3
2015-08-06 16:47:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU AUG 06 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 061447 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HILDA ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015 800 AM PDT THU AUG 06 2015 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.7N 132.3W ABOUT 1630 MI...2620 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilda was located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 132.3 West. Hilda is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). This motion is expected to continue through tonight followed by a turn toward the west-northwest on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Hilda is expected to be near hurricane strength by Saturday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Storm HILDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2015-08-06 16:47:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 06 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 061447 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015 1500 UTC THU AUG 06 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 11(44) 2(46) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) X(15) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 2(15) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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