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Tropical Storm Nadine Forecast Advisory Number 7
2018-10-10 22:38:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 000 WTNT25 KNHC 102038 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NADINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152018 2100 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 32.2W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 32.2W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 32.0W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 13.8N 32.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 14.8N 34.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 15.7N 35.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 16.2N 36.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 32.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Nadine Graphics
2018-10-10 16:52:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 10 Oct 2018 14:52:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 10 Oct 2018 14:52:33 GMT
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Tropical Storm Nadine Forecast Discussion Number 6
2018-10-10 16:49:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 10 2018 000 WTNT45 KNHC 101449 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 10 2018 Several microwave overpasses after 0600 UTC indicated that Nadine very quickly developed a well-defined mid-level eye overnight. This signature is typically associated with strengthening tropical cyclones. Although more recent visible imagery indicates that strong shear has since caused the cyclone to become tilted with height, a pair of ASCAT passes around 1200 UTC indicated maximum winds of 45-50 kt. Given the small size of the tropical storm, the ASCAT likely under-sampled the true maximum, so the initial intensity has been raised to 55 kt. Due to limitations in our ability to observe the intensity of small tropical storms far from land, it should be noted that this estimate is fairly uncertain. Since the tropical storm appears to have become more tilted since last night, further strengthening is not likely. Shear analysis from UW-CIMSS shows that Nadine is moving into a region of 20-30 kt of westerly shear, and SHIPS diagnostics indicate that the shear could increase to near 40 kt in another couple of days. All of the intensity guidance indicates that Nadine will weaken quickly by tomorrow, and it could become a depression by 72 h. Dissipation will likely follow shortly after, as shown by nearly all of the global and regional models. The aforementioned ASCAT passes were very helpful in locating the center of Nadine at 1200 UTC, and the tropical storm is moving northwestward, or 325/6 kt. A northwestward to north-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is anticipated for the next day or two. By Friday, a turn toward the west will likely begin as the low-level circulation of Nadine becomes separated from its convection and turns westward in the low-level easterlies. Nadine is essentially on the track of the previous NHC forecast, and no significant changes to the track forecast were required. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 12.6N 31.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 13.5N 32.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 14.6N 32.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 15.7N 33.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 16.5N 35.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 17.5N 39.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Nadine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2018-10-10 16:48:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 000 FONT15 KNHC 101448 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM NADINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152018 1500 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Summary for Tropical Storm Nadine (AT5/AL152018)
2018-10-10 16:48:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NADINE STRENGTHENED OVERNIGHT... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Oct 10 the center of Nadine was located near 12.6, -31.6 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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